Interpreting evidence : evaluating forensic science in the courtroom / by Bernard Robertson, G.A. Vignaux, Charles E.H. Berger.
2016
K5465 .R63 2016 (Map It)
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Details
Author
Title
Interpreting evidence : evaluating forensic science in the courtroom / by Bernard Robertson, G.A. Vignaux, Charles E.H. Berger.
Published
Chichester, West Sussex, UK : John Wiley & Sons, Ltd, 2016.
Copyright
©2016
Call Number
K5465 .R63 2016
Edition
Second edition.
ISBN
9781118492437 hardcover
1118492439 hardcover
9781118492482 paperback
111849248X paperback
1118492439 hardcover
9781118492482 paperback
111849248X paperback
Description
xiii, 197 pages : illustrations ; 25 cm
System Control No.
(OCoLC)945072465
Bibliography, etc. Note
Includes bibliographical references and index.
Available in Other Form
Online version: Robertson, Bernard, author. Interpreting evidence. Second edition. Chichester, West Sussex, UK ; Hoboken : John Wiley and Sons, Inc., 2016 9781118492468 (DLC) 2016013005
Record Appears in
Table of Contents
Preface to the First Edition
xi
Preface to the Second Edition
xv
1.
Introduction
1
1.1.
Three 'principles'
1
1.2.
Dreyfus, Bertillon, and Poincare
3
1.3.
Requirements for Forensic Scientific Evidence
5
1.3.1.
Reliability
6
1.4.
What We Will Cover
6
2.
Interpreting Scientific Evidence
9
2.1.
Relevance and Probative Value
9
2.1.1.
Ideal and Useless Evidence
10
2.1.2.
Typical Evidence
11
2.1.3.
Aside on Probability and Odds
11
2.1.4.
Breath-Testing Device
13
2.2.
Likelihood Ratio and Bayes' Theorem
14
2.2.1.
Likelihood Ratio
14
2.2.2.
Bayes' Theorem
15
2.2.3.
Effect of Prior Odds
16
2.2.4.
HIV Test
16
2.2.5.
Transposing the Conditional
17
2.2.6.
Giving Evidence
18
2.3.
Admissibility and Relevance
19
2.3.1.
Prejudging the Case?
20
2.4.
Case Studies
21
2.4.1.
Useful Presentation of DNA Evidence
21
2.4.2.
Shoe Mark at the Murder Scene
22
2.4.3.
Probability of Paternity
23
2.4.4.
Child Sexual Abuse
26
2.5.
Summary
27
3.
Alternative Hypothesis
29
3.1.
Some Symbols
29
3.1.1.
Hypotheses
29
3.1.2.
Evidence
30
3.1.3.
Probability
30
3.2.
Which Alternative Hypothesis?
30
3.2.1.
Probative Value and the Alternative Hypothesis
30
3.2.2.
Selecting the Appropriate Alternative Hypotheses
31
3.2.3.
Example
32
3.3.
Exclusive, Exhaustive, and Multiple Hypotheses
33
3.3.1.
Exclusiveness
33
3.3.2.
Exhaustiveness
34
3.3.3.
Multiple Hypotheses
35
3.4.
Immigration and Paternity Cases
35
3.4.1.
No Alternative Father
36
3.4.2.
Named Alternative Father
36
3.4.3.
Older Example
37
3.5.
'It Was My Brother'
38
3.6.
Traces at the Scene and Traces on the Suspect
39
3.6.1.
Traces at the Scene
39
3.6.2.
Traces on the Accused
39
3.6.3.
Accused's Race
40
3.7.
Hypothetical Questions
40
3.8.
Pre-Trial Conferences and Defence Notice
42
3.9.
Case Studies
43
3.9.1.
Alternative Hypotheses in Cases of Child Sexual Abuse
43
3.9.2.
Shoe Mark Case Again
43
3.9.3.
Sally Clark
44
3.10.
Summary
45
4.
What Questions Can the Expert Deal With?
47
4.1.
Hierarchy of Propositions
47
4.2.
Ultimate Issue Rule
50
4.2.1.
Rationale
51
4.2.2.
Experts Must Not Give Evidence on Legal Concepts
51
4.2.3.
Rule and Logical Inference
52
4.2.4.
Ultimate Issue Rule Is Correct
53
4.3.
Summary
54
5.
Explaining the Strength of Evidence
55
5.1.
Explaining the Likelihood Ratio
56
5.1.1.
Sensitivity Tables
57
5.2.
Weight of Evidence
57
5.3.
Words Instead of Numbers?
58
5.3.1.
Standardising Word Meanings
59
5.3.2.
Inconsistent Meanings of 'Consistent'
60
5.3.3.
'Could Have' and 'Could Have Not'
61
5.3.4.
There's Nothing Special about Being 'Unique'
61
5.3.5.
'Reliability'
62
5.3.6.
Other Words to Avoid
63
5.4.
Dealing with Wrongly Expressed Evidence
63
5.5.
Case Studies
64
5.5.1.
Shoe Marks
64
5.5.2.
Stomach Contents
66
5.5.3.
Hair Growth
66
5.6.
Summary
67
6.
Case as a Whole
69
6.1.
Combining Evidence
69
6.1.1.
Dependent and Independent Evidence
70
6.1.2.
Conditional Independence
71
6.1.3.
Combining Dependent Evidence
72
6.2.
Can Combined Weak Evidence Be Stronger Than Its Components?
72
6.3.
Standard of Proof and the Cost of Errors
74
6.3.1.
Civil Cases
75
6.3.2.
Criminal Cases
75
6.3.3.
Child Sex-Abuse Cases
75
6.3.4.
Is a Quantifiable Doubt a Reasonable Doubt?
75
6.3.5.
What If the Scientific Evidence Is the Only Evidence?
76
6.4.
Assessing Prior Odds
76
6.4.1.
Prior Odds and the Presumption of Innocence
77
6.5.
Defence Hypothesis and the Prior Odds
78
6.6.
Case Studies
78
6.6.1.
Bomb-Hoax Call
78
6.6.2.
Loveridge v Adlam
81
6.7.
Summary
82
7.
Forensic Science Methodology
85
7.1.
General Methodology for Comparative Analysis
86
7.1.1.
Choosing Features
86
7.1.2.
Choosing How to Compare Features
87
7.1.3.
Calculating Same-Source and Different-Source Comparison Scores
88
7.1.4.
Generating Likelihood Ratios
90
7.2.
Assessing the Performance of an Expert or a Comparison System
90
7.2.1.
Discrimination
91
7.2.2.
Calibration
91
7.2.3.
Misleading Evidence
92
7.2.4.
Discrimination versus Calibration
93
7.2.5.
Improving Calibration
93
7.3.
System Performance Characteristics
95
7.3.1.
Tippett Plots
95
7.3.2.
Measuring Discrimination and Calibration Separately
96
7.4.
Case Assessment and Interpretation (CAI)
98
7.4.1.
Defining the Customer Requirement
98
7.4.2.
Assessing How Forensic Science Can Help
99
7.4.3.
Agreeing on a Case Examination Strategy
99
7.4.4.
Examination, Interpretation, and Communication
99
7.4.5.
Case Example, Murder or Suicide?
100
7.5.
Context Bias
102
7.5.1.
Base Rate Information
102
7.5.2.
Case Information
103
7.5.3.
Reference Material
103
7.5.4.
Questioned Material
103
7.6.
Summary
104
8.
Assigning Likelihood Ratios
107
8.1.
DNA
108
8.1.1.
Single Comparison with a Match as a Result
109
8.1.2.
Database Search with a Single Match as a Result
109
8.1.3.
Database Search with Multiple Matches as a Result
110
8.1.4.
Extremely Large LRs
111
8.2.
Glass Refractive Index
111
8.3.
Colour Comparison
113
8.3.1.
Colour Feature Selection or Construction
113
8.3.2.
Colour Comparison Algorithm
114
8.3.3.
Colour Feature and Score Distribution for Collection
114
8.4.
Fingerprints
116
8.4.1.
Feature Selection or Construction
117
8.4.2.
Comparison Algorithm, and Within- and Between-Source Scores
119
8.5.
Signatures
121
8.6.
Psychological Evidence
125
8.6.1.
Probative Value of Psychological Evidence
125
8.7.
Summary
127
9.
Errors of Thinking
129
9.1.
Brace of Lawyers' Fallacies
129
9.1.1.
Prosecutor's Fallacy
129
9.1.2.
Defence Attorney's Fallacy
133
9.1.3.
Balance
134
9.2.
Double-Counting Evidence?
134
9.3.
Accuracy and Reliability of Scientific Evidence
135
9.3.1.
Honest Reporting
136
9.3.2.
Quality Control
136
9.3.3.
Laboratory Error Rate
137
9.4.
Case Studies
138
9.4.1.
mad Earl of Ferrers
138
9.4.2.
Blood on the Belt
139
9.4.3.
Broken Glass
141
9.5.
Summary
144
10.
Frequentist Statistics and Database Matching
147
10.1.
Frequentist Statistical Approach
148
10.1.1.
Problems of Significance Testing
148
10.1.2.
What Is a Confidence Interval?
150
10.2.
Databases
152
10.2.1.
Using This Evidence
153
10.2.2.
Traps with Databases
153
10.3.
Right Questions and the Wrong Questions
154
10.3.1.
When the Wrong Questions Give the Right Answers
155
10.4.
Summary
158
11.
Implications for the Legal System
161
11.1.
What Is Expert Evidence?
161
11.1.1.
Is Expert Evidence Just Opinion Evidence?
162
11.1.2.
Is 'Expert Opinion' Different from Tay Opinion'?
163
11.1.3.
Expert Evidence as a Subject in Itself
163
11.2.
Who Is an Expert?
164
11.2.1.
Organised Body of Knowledge?
165
11.2.2.
Forensic Scientists as Expert Witnesses
166
11.3.
Insanity and the Ultimate Issue Rule
166
11.3.1.
Is Forensic Science Different from Other Sciences?
168
11.4.
Novel Forms of Scientific Evidence
168
11.4.1.
Additional Requirements for Forensic Scientific Evidence?
168
11.4.2.
End of the Frye Test [—] Daubert
170
11.4.3.
Testing of the Theory or Technique
171
11.4.4.
Publication and Peer Review
172
11.4.5.
Actual or Potential Error Rates
172
11.4.6.
Wide Acceptance
173
11.4.7.
Conclusions on Daubert
174
11.5.
Knowledge of Context
174
11.5.1.
Importance of Context
174
11.5.2.
Defence Disclosure
175
11.6.
Court-Appointed Experts
176
11.7.
Summary
177
12.
Conclusion
179
12.1.
Forensic Science as a Science
180
12.2.
Conclusions
181
12.3.
Fundamental Questions
181
Appendix
183
A.1.
Probability, Odds, Bayes' Rule and the Weight of Evidence
183
A.1.1.
Probability
183
A.1.2.
Odds
184
A.1.3.
Symbols
185
A.2.
Laws of Probability
186
A.2.1.
Complementarity
186
A.2.2.
Product Rule
186
A.2.3.
Sum Rule
187
A.2.4.
Likelihood Ratio, LR
188
A.2.5.
Bayes' Rule
188
A.2.6.
Probability Form
188
A.2.7.
Odds Form of Bayes' Rule
189
A.2.8.
Combining Evidence
189
A.3.
Weight of Evidence
190
Index
193